Nigeria Decides 2015: A Survey Brief

This post is devoted to sharing results from an opinion survey of the 2015 Presidential Elections powered by Research Policy Shop. 

 The objective of the Survey was to examine factors influencing prospective voting behaviours in the elections as well as the effect of age, gender, religious affiliation, state of origin on respondent’s prospective voting behaviour. 

 Respondents were of different age categories and had states of origin spread across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones. Research Policy Shop deeply appreciates everyone who took a minute to participate in the Survey.

In order to capture respondent’s likely voting choice, a question was asked about which of the leading Presidential candidates was preferred. 74 per cent of respondents had voting preferences for the APC candidate, while a meagre 25 per cent preferred the PDP candidate.

Figure 1: Likely Voting Choice
Source: Research Policy Shop Survey, 2015

Irrespective of their voting preference, majority of the respondents believe the APC candidate had better chances at winning the 2015 Presidential Elections. This can be attributed to the declining popularity of the current administration amongst other things.
Figure 2: Opinion on Outcome of Presidential Elections
Source: Research Policy Shop Survey 2015

One crucial finding of this Survey as different from other Surveys available on the 2015 Presidential Elections centres on determinants of individual voting behaviour. The results show that respondents are not the least sentimental in their choices. 

 Prospective voters (87 per cent) based their decision on a personal evaluation of the candidate’s past/prospective performance as well as candidate’s desirable personal characteristics. Only a minority of respondents (13 per cent) based their prospective voting behaviour on affiliated party ideals and manifesto.

Figure 3: Determinant of Voting Behaviour
Source: Research Policy Shop Survey 2015
 
It is also pertinent to note that prospective voters were not bias on grounds of religious inclination. Even though all Muslim respondents posited that the APC candidate may likely win the presidential elections, a large percentage of Christian voters (70.6 per cent) also felt the APC candidate was better positioned to win the elections. 

 Similarly, all Muslim respondents (100 per cent) stated that they were likely to vote for the APC candidate, while a greater percentage of the Christian respondents (71.1 per cent) stated that they were likely to vote for the APC candidate.

Majority of respondents in different age categories intended to vote for the APC candidate and also thought that the APC candidate may likely win the elections. 

 71.6 per cent of young persons below 45 years of age thought the APC candidate may likely win the elections while 83.3 per cent of them were likely to vote for the APC presidential candidate. 

 60 per cent of the elderly, aged 65 years and above, felt the APC candidate will likely win the Presidential elections, while 80 per cent of them noted that they were likely to vote for the APC candidate. 

 Furthermore, 65.2 per cent of female respondents stated they may likely vote for the APC candidate, while 69.6 per cent of them thought the APC candidate may likely win the 2015 presidential elections. 76.5 per cent of male respondents stated they may likely vote for the APC candidate, while 72.4 per cent of them think APC candidate may likely win the 2015 presidential elections.

Going forward, it is my earnest desire that the outcome of the 2015 Presidential Elections will move Nigeria forward in peace and progress. I have a dream that governance in Nigeria will from now on be hinged on the ideals of integrity and meritocracy as well as a commitment to the advancement of our collective interests.
God bless Nigeria!!!

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